Vladimir Putin proved last weekend that Russia's army can push over
Georgia's army. In the past 48 hours, the West has begun to push back.
If its leaders stay the course, they may yet turn Mr. Putin's meager
military success into a significant political defeat.
In Washington yesterday, President Bush issued a statement1 of
precisely the sort the world expects from American leadership in such
circumstances. It made clear what he understands to be Mr. Putin's
goals and made equally clear the intention to resist those goals, and
why doing so is in the world's interests.
"The United States and our allies stand with the people of Georgia and
their democratically elected government," Mr. Bush said. In other
words, the Russians have made no pretense that their purpose in Georgia
is to remove President Mikheil Saakashvili from the office to which he
was elected in 2004. This would make the West complicit in the
overthrow of a democratic government.
Mr. Bush also noted pointedly that "The days of satellite states and
spheres of influence are behind us." It has become clear through this
week that Mr. Putin's rationale for the invasion extends beyond
Georgia's violated borders. His intent is to convince independent
nations on Russia's periphery -- Ukraine, the Baltic states -- that
persisting as Poland has to deepen formal ties to the West,
particularly NATO, will cost them dearly. In crudest terms, it will be
fatal.
This would be a reversion to the vassal-state relationship of the Cold
War that the West cannot allow. It is evident and welcome that in the
days between Mr. Putin's decision to belly-slam into the Olympics'
opening weekend and now, Mr. Bush and his team have notably hardened
what was a tepid early response.
Both Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert
Gates are specialists in the Soviet era and are acutely aware of the
price paid in human terms to bring the Soviet Union to dissolution in
1991. It must discomfit them to see that achievement threaten to
unravel, especially after having invested so much in good relations
with Mr. Putin. So it is reassuring to hear Mr. Gates say the Russians
run the risk of damaging relations with the West "for years to come."
This isn't just some point of disagreement. The Americans and their
allies must continue to make Mr. Putin pay a political penalty for
Georgia.
Yesterday the Russians said their General Prosecutor's Office would
undertake a "genocide probe" in South Ossetia, and they called for
putting President Saakashvili on trial at the Hague for "war crimes."
As it happens, Chapter 1, Article II of the U.N. Charter, signed amid
the smashed borders of World War II, forbids Members from the "use of
force against the territorial integrity or political independence of
any state." The U.S. and France should force Mr. Putin's U.N.
ambassador to veto a Security Council resolution describing his
week-long mockery of those words.
Additionally, a genuinely independent prosecutor investigating war
crimes might examine the Russian bombing runs over Georgia and the
looting of Georgian villages by Ossetian militias. An intriguing
article by Pavel Felgengauer in Novaya Gazeta, the Russian newspaper,
argues that an examination of the movement of the ground equipment and
ships used in the strike against Georgia required planning that
predated August.
Western authorities should also explore the vulnerability of Russian
assets abroad. At the least, they can make life difficult for the
holders of those assets. Post-Soviet Russia allowed the emergence of
businessmen and entrepreneurs who indeed wish to function as normal
participants in world commerce. Their number, however, assuredly
includes the lucky billionaires under Mr. Putin's protection. All of
them want to benefit from the West's rules. That privilege should be
restricted so long as Mr. Putin breaks the rules.
In the world of global commerce, reputation matters. China has
calculated that its own ambivalent reputation can only gain from
staging the Olympic extravaganza. The glow of the Games is money in the
bank. By contrast, the Putin government has embarked on a strategy that
seems to believe its power grows in sync with its reputation as an
international pariah, an outsider state.
Mr. Bush said Friday that "Russia has damaged its credibility and its
relations with the nations of the free world." True, and if the West
remains firm, it can make clear to Mr. Putin that the political price
of behavior beyond the pale of normal relations is high. Overrunning
Georgia was easy. Life after that should not be.
