Notwithstanding the hype about Barack Obama, here is where the
presidential race stands: John McCain was within an average of 1.9% of
his Democratic opponent in last week's daily Gallup tracking poll.
It shouldn't be this close. Sen. Obama should be way ahead. It's not
that Sen. McCain has made up a lot of ground. Pollster.com shows that
the Republican steadily declined from March through June as the
Democratic contest dominated the news. Mr. McCain stabilized in July,
and then ticked up slightly. But the most important political fact of
July is that Mr. Obama has lost altitude. Gallup now projects that 23%
of this year's electorate will be swing voters, more than twice the
share in 2004.
It seems that each candidate is underperforming with his base. Mr.
Obama's problem is that only 74% of Democrats in the latest Fox Poll
support him, while Mr. McCain gets 86% of Republicans. But Mr. McCain's
support lacks the same intensity Mr. Obama receives. The latest Pew
poll found that 24% of voters "strongly" support Mr. Obama, compared to
17% for Mr. McCain.
Old doubts about Mr. Obama remain. In a late June Washington Post poll,
46% said Mr. Obama lacked the experience to do the job, the same number
as in March, before he spent $119 million to run ads extolling himself.
In February 2000, 59% said George W. Bush, then governor of Texas, had
the experience to be president. That number grew as the campaign wore
on. Now Mr. Obama faces new doubts over perceptions that he's arrogant,
self-centered and calculating.
So what should Mr. McCain do? He's rightly raising questions about Mr.
Obama's fitness to be president, starting with his failure to admit
that the surge in Iraq worked. Mr. McCain should stay at it, though
he'll need help to make the case.
Mr. McCain was correct to seize on Mr. Obama's insinuations that the
GOP would mount racist attacks against him. Now Mr. McCain needs to
find ways to describe an Obama who is running on empty rhetoric. He
needs to do to Mr. Obama what Walter Mondale did to Gary "Where's the
Beef?" Hart in the 1984 Democratic primaries. Given Mr. Obama's thin
résumé and accomplishments, this can be done, with a
sustained effort.
But to win, Mr. McCain must also make a compelling case for electing
John McCain. Voters trust him on terrorism and Iraq and they see him as
a patriot who puts country first. But they want to know for what
purpose?
In the coming weeks, he needs to lay out a bold domestic reform
program. He gave a taste on energy, but with a few missteps. He should
appear in front of manufacturing plants where jobs depend on affordable
energy, small businesses affected by fuel prices, and farms hurt by
skyrocketing fertilizer costs -- and not in front of oil rigs. He needs
to describe the consequences of specific domestic policy decisions. He
must explain how his proposals on energy, health care, jobs and
education will make a difference for ordinary families.
Mr. McCain also needs to elevate his arguments. It's not only that he
opposes tax increases and Mr. Obama favors them. Mr. McCain must also
make the principled case that there should be a limit to what
government can take from its citizens. This argument will appeal to a
large majority of voters. The top income tax rate is 35% and, according
to the Tax Foundation, 89% of Americans believe that government should
take no more than 30% from anyone's paycheck.
Mr. McCain should also talk about issues that increase Republican
enthusiasm and win over independents, such as earmarks and judicial
activism. And he should not shy away from appeals for bipartisanship.
He's done it -- and talking about it undermines Mr. Obama, who hasn't.
It also explains who Mr. McCain is. Mr. McCain should welcome
opportunities to go against the grain. Defending free trade in
manufacturing states is gutsy and feeds his maverick, straight-talk
image.
He will be pleasantly surprised to find out how many people in Ohio and
elsewhere understand that their state's prosperity depends on knocking
down trade barriers.
Then there's character. Mr. McCain is the most private person to run
for president since Calvin Coolidge in the 1920s. He needs to share (or
allow others to share) more about him, especially his faith. The McCain
and Obama campaigns are mirror opposites. Mr. McCain offers little
biography, while Mr. Obama is nothing but.
The Republican Party's convention next month is Mr. McCain's biggest
chance to improve his posture. The best minds in his campaign should be
carefully working on its script. Everyone knows conventions are show,
but voters want to see if a candidate can put on a good one that rings
true.
Mr. Obama has the easier path to victory: reassure a restive electorate
that he's up to the job. Mr. McCain must both educate voters to his
opponent's weaknesses and persuade them that he has a vision for the
coming four years. This will require a disciplined, focused effort. Mr.
McCain has gotten this far fighting an unscripted guerrilla campaign.
But it won't get him all the way to the White House.
Mr. Rove is a former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush.
